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(ISOM111)[2009](f)midterm1~khwongak^_36291.pdf
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ISOMlll Sections Ll, L2, and L3 (Fall 2009)
Midterm Exam No.1
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
7:00pm -8:15pm


Name (please print): (\-\DNG

(Family name Given name)
Student ID number: _---"'-.t....=.l.-=-'-'---!.. _ Section 0 0 e
Ll L2 L3

Do not open this exam until
you are instructed to do so.
You have 75 minutes
to complete this exam.

There are 5 questions on 8 pages in this exam, including this cover page. Check to make sure that you have all the pages. All 5 questions are equally weighted with
10 points each. (Different parts of some questions maybe weighted differently.)
Write your answers directly on the exam. Work written on additional sheets, if attached, will be ignored.
For multiple-choice or TruelFalse questions, you are not required to show your work. Darken only the circle next to the answer choice selected by you. (Check the appropriate box for TruelFalse questions.) Select the answer choice closest to the answer you believe as correct. (There is no extra penalty for choosing a wrong answer choice.)
For all other non-multiple-choice questions, you have to show your work, whenever it is stated, to justify your answers; otherwise no credits will be given. Non-integral numerical answers should be given accurately up to at least the fourth decimal place whenever possible.
You are required to return all pages of this exam booklet at the end of the examination period.
You are on your honor to DO YOUR OWN WORK on this examination.
-J



(1) Williamson Publishing Company is to decide whether to publish a proposed marketing textbook. Before a publishing decision is made, the proposed book will be reviewed. It may receive either a favorable or an unfavorable review. Past information indicates that, of all previously published textbooks, 8% are huge successes, 24% are moderate successes, 42% break even, and 26% are losers. Furthermore, 95% of the huge successes received favorable reviews, 70% of the moderate successes received favorable reviews, 40% of the break-even books received favorable reviews, and 20% of the losers received favorable reviews.
(1a) What are the probabilities that a proposed textbook will receive a favorable review and, if subsequently published, also be, respectively, (i) a huge success, (ii) a moderate success, (iii) a break-even book, and (iv) a loser?
(Show your work)
r(~Yl>r.J,LLt\h",~5V\lU~5,.)~ D.vtx 0,0,,\= ,o.lJ:r1o
Pl~v{)Y7A~LL (\ m~ k.r,,--u.->IA LC9V,}= 0. V'f X 0.1--:-0, \~~
0..
~C~a.vo~\.Q.. f\ CA. ~k-~ bo\)k.)<;t>.\j~'x'O,\(, =: O./bP
?l~~~ (\ C\. \o~):: Ck)..lox (0. L -= 0 ,O~L
lui" \


b}-~",\c-e'..(, \0V-v \) \+bLf
() \)::-. ~~
U \\J ~
Answer: (i) 0, 0 ~k (ii) o. ,'J, (iii) ~ .,~J (iv) D.or\.
(1b) Suppose the proposed marketing textbook has received a favorable review. What are the probabilities that this proposed marketing textbook, if published, will be (i) a huge success, (ii) a moderate success, (iii) a brea